For those on top-50 bubble, Sunday in Memphis is huge for their 2025 prospects

MEMPHIS — Will Zalatoris admits to having had almost no expectations entering this week’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. What he did have was some good vibes. Now he is in good position to advance to the second leg of the series.

Zalatoris arrived at TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship on a bit of a downward spiral and ranked 49th in the points standings, most definitely on the bubble in the quest for a berth in next week’s BMW Championship in Colorado. The top 50 advance to Castle Pines Golf Club, and as a reward, earn exemptions into all of the eight high-dollar signature events on the 2025 PGA Tour schedule.

Having missed almost all of last year rehabbing from back surgery, Zalatoris enjoyed a surprising strong early season run as he got back into tournament form, but has missed the cut in four of his last six starts and withdrew from another, the Rocket Mortgage Classic, after two rounds.

“I've busted my tail for three or four months and haven't gotten much out of it,” the 28-year-old Texas resident said. “But hard work and a good attitude, eventually the good stuff is going to come, and it's nice to do it at a place that I really love.”

He loves TPC Southwind because two years ago, just before his back blew up, Zalatoris won the 2022 edition of this tournament in a field of 125 players. Lo and behold, it still loves him back. At least so far. With a third-round three-under 67, Zalatoris sits T-6 at nine-under 201, eight shots back of leader Hideki Matsuyama. His performance thus far has him projected for 34th in the points standings if he holds his ground in Sunday’s final round. Perhaps he can even move up farther and get a boost for a push into the Tour Championship in Atlanta.

Zalatoris didn’t really want to look that far ahead. He didn’t want to look past the final round. He was just happy—somewhat—with his play after a significant stretch of frustration.

“Honestly, I've played so poorly throughout the year that in reality I've really just … whether I made it or not, the fact that I made it this far, coming back after the surgeries, it was great to be back,” he said. “It was a nice way of kind of everything coming back full circle. But by no means am I pleased with my position.

“Yeah, it helps having the first playoff event on a golf course that you love, but regardless, if I were to make it or not to next week, it's more about the big picture. … I've played very inconsistent. It's nice to put three rounds together. I'm kind of looking at the bigger picture as opposed to next week.”

Well, OK, let’s take a look at the big picture, because next week might not be in the cards for a few players who began the tournament inside the top 50.

While Zalatoris was floating in bubble land, Viktor Hovland and Justin Rose have been busting it. The defending FedEx Cup champion, Hovland looked in danger of missing the BMW Championship, which he won a year ago. But rounds of 63 and 66 have lifted him into third place at 11 under, and he’s bolted from 57th to 20th in the standings. Rose, who won the FedEx Cup title in 2018, shot 71 Saturday, but is still T-9 on the leaderboard. He has moved up nine places to 46th in the points standings.

One player who probably didn’t expect to be in a precarious position is Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley. He teed off on Thursday a seemingly safe 39th in the standings, but after a 74 Saturday, he has fallen all the way to 51st. His three-over total puts him in a tie for 62nd place. He can still save his season with merely a decent finish, but the former PGA champion still has to go do it.

Just ahead of Bradley is Nick Taylor of Canada, who saved par at the home hole for a 70 and kept himself squarely on the last qualifying spot. He entered the week 52nd and clings to 50th entering the final round. Harris English, struggling with a back injury, is 49th, up two spots, after a 70,and is tied for 25th with Taylor and four others.

Currently projected to fall out of the top 50, besides Bradley, are Cam Davis, Max Greyserman and Jake Knapp. They began the opening playoff event 44th, 47th and 50th, respectively, the points standings.

Also losing ground, most notably, is Mackenzie Hughes, who came in 48th and now projected 54th. He is wallowing in joint 58th place at one over. Last year, Hughes arrived in 49th place and got bumped to 51st. But when Jon Rahm left for the LIV Golf League, Hughes moved up to 50th and enjoyed the signature-event invitations.

Looking ahead to the Tour Championship, Cameron Young has hurt his prospects this week after a third-round 74. A double bogey at the par-four ninth, his final hole of the day, left him T-67 at five over. He’s in no danger of missing next week’s BMW Championship, but is projected to lose eight places and drop to 39th, meaning Young needs a strong showing at Castle Pines in Colorado to make it to Atlanta.

Among those with no chance to advance is three-time major winner Jordan Spieth, who is 69th in the 70-man field after a 74 and is projected to be 66th in the standings.